Sunday, February 15, 2015

Debt in the USA

Social security is zero issue -- that money does not exist today, except as a past tax that has been reapportioned already.  It is a purported obligation of the gov't, and gov't money backs it up.  Really the only issue there is the size versus GDP.  Now, 401Ks would be a bit of an issue, but mostly because of inflated equity markets more than personal debt.   National debt is a problem more as an ROI on spending and whatever interest gets paid than the size per se, but all of that is obfuscated by the funky and unnecessary Fed and fractional reserve banking.  Treasury could do what is needed alone.

The tricky part of bank debt is there is no real line between individual assets and banking assets and individual debt and bank debt, as it's all "private debt", though the private banks are acting like part of the public money creation by issuing loans........and also investing on their own behalf.

Most basically, though, from what I've gathered is that when rate of return on capital exceeds rate of wage growth, wealth aggregates toward the wealthy.  The last bust just vacuumed up real property to institutions and investors.  The next bust will finish off corporate ownership, as it washes out individuals and their 401Ks. 

This whole notion of capitalism focused on modest inflation and 2% raises and 4-6% unemployment but a 6% stock market skews toward the wealthy.  Really, a democracy should lean toward work for all, welfare for few, more production and less service fraction, and wage growth eating most of the benefits of production.  Of course that goes against globalism, but that is dying anyway, as the currency race to the bottom continues -- everybody wants to be an exporter, and yet all they'll likely export is deflation.

All 4% inflation guarantees is that people fight for jobs instead of wages fighting for workers.  I fully admit there are crappy workers, but good ones should be in demand, and the best should get better raises than the investors who own their company's stock.

I read that prisons cost the US 240B yearly.  Nowhere near as much as healthcare, but a LOT.  Yet another "service industry" on both sides of the bars that produces nothing to improve quality of life or national wealth.  Except for dangerous criminals, we need to get people out of prison and making stuff.  Since we're paying $30K or more for each already, any sort of marginal return would be a big improvement.

The service economy in general is a misnomer too, except for where a modest level of service support adds efficiency to the productive workers.  No way a "mostly service" economy can be wealthy in the long term, as to do that requires producing more goods to share around.  If we're producing more than we need (food, houses, whatever), then there shouldn't be worries about retirement or welfare, as what remains is a distribution problem.

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