A Better Plan

It seems to me to make progress we need a few things... 

Vision:  Find a few BFAGs that most can get behind.  Save the planet from climate change, pollution, and resource consumption.  Revisit how we build and operate cities and transportation.  Go to Mars, and then the stars.  Conquer cancer and dementia.  I'll support all of these, but honestly I struggle how to effectively champion any.

Changes:  Identify changes and define metrics: Know what we need to do.  The first part is pretty easy, as we have lots of "hard problems" that are already known, so all we need to find is solution.  Funny thing is, the US has gotten REALLY good at funding research, and equally bad at implementing what we learn, so probably with a bit of Googling most anybody could determine a better course of action that what we've been doing. 

Crime?  Homelessness?  Mass shooting?  Racism?  Poor testing scores?  Inequity?  Any of these you look into you will find research, and researchers, and advocates who ardently believe they know how to address much of the issues, and probably even some real-world examples and tests/trials that support what they claim.  

It's not so much knowledge, but determination to act.  We just need to go do some, pay close attention, revise, and go again.  Implement some feedback loops, whenever possible, too.

What can we do individually?  At least this part is actionable.  For starters, know our weaknesses and deliberately think better.  Avoid echo chambers of any sort, where you can, but especially those with drivel in them. Here's how I think of it:

Imagine you're in your garage working on a project, and a roofer knocks on your door, says you need a new roof, they are doing roofs nearby, throws out two neighbors' names, and says he'll give you 10% off if you sign up today.

What might you do?
- You COULD say "do it!", write out a check for a down-payment, and contact your insurance company the next day.

- You COULD take their card, give them 1 point for sketchiness and 1 for effort, and decide maybe it's time to consider a roof replacement.

    - Revisit how the roof is, and recent storms

    - Check with the named neighbors, and see how their experience has been (if anything at all)

    - Read up on how to judge roof condition.

    - If age is apparent, check you personal network and local recommendations for roofing inspectors or roofers.

    - Review ratings and vendor qualifications of local roofers, and pick a couple good ones for assessments and quote. Be pleasantly surprised if the card you have is actually in the list of top roofers.

    - Start a convo with your insurance company, review coverages, estimate costs, and ask their recommendations

    - Based on all the above, come up with a plan, which might be urgent, or it might be a yearly update.

- You COULD simply do nothing, and wait until a leak appears.

Which would you do?

 

Or, here's another one:  A young kid somehow gets separated from their adults, and they are lost, alone, scared, and not sure what to do.  What should they consider:
    - Wander aimlessly until a helpful man offers to assist them, and asks them to come with him?
    - Pick a random, busy-looking middle-age woman, and go ask for help?

Clearly, the man is offering his time, seems to understand there is a need, and is willing to be helpful.  The woman is busy, probably has stuff to do right now, and hasn't even noticed there is an issue.  But which choice is wiser?

 

None of us can be an expert on everything, and none of can do everything we'd like.  None of us are as smart as we think we are, nor can believe in individual convictions.  We each must prioritize what is important in our lives, but try to be reasonable discerning on most other topics, and lean into expertise.  Key points:

- Don't believe what you hear.  Be wary of new info that corroborates what you want to believe, and of new info that conflicts with what you already believe.

- Where you have new info and old assumptions, feel free to test them.  Go do some research.  Here's the thing about the modern world: we have Google.  It's not hard to find lots of info, and not even hard to find reputable info.  Having good questions is harder than finding answers, in most cases.  Just use any "Huh, that's unexpected" vibes as a cue to go seek some better info.

 

It's not hard, with a bit of thought, to come up with perfectly sound ways of making better decisions and vetting information and situations; the important part is to engage our executive function layer and decide to be smart about it.

Perhaps apply some simple heuristics, too:
- When in doubt, favor the option that is "nicer", and favors a common good.  Punch up, don't kick down.  Pull lower people up, and maybe pull higher people down.  Don't equate wealth, cleanliness, or scripture-talking with goodness or wisdom by default.

- For random data, suspect information that seems polished and repeated, and is presented as "common knowledge".  

- Suspect sources that claim agendas and conspiracies, and yet have a good story to tell.  Suspect anecdotes and individual narratives, and learn a bit about statistics and fallacies.

- For technical topics, respect education, expertise, and rigorous studies.  

- For complex, human topics, suspect simple solutions, and favor trial-and-error experimentation with feedback.

- Promote shared investment over privatization of profits.  Follow the money...

- Test your priors:  suspect your own assumptions, especially stuff instilled when you were in "training" up to adulthood.  Think back to the mainstream backlash after the 60's, and the War on Drugs, production of police shows (still a thing today, too), Tough on Crime, broken windows policing, stop-and-frisk, rugged individualism, Sesame Street, daily Pledge of Allegiance, zero-absence attendance rewards, IQ tests and grades, mandatory books to read (and those discouraged/banned), ROTC in schools, gender roles, American Dream expectations of a nice house in the suburbs, importance of a driver's license at 16, drinking laws, vies on riding transit like buses (even school buses), diversity quotas and deed restrictions, importance of credit ratings, and more.   Why were you told much of this, was it actually true, and who did it benefit?

"It' ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble.  It's what you do know that just ain't so." - Twain.  Maybe worse, it often causes division and inequity across society as well.