Christmas Tele-Kaleidoscope

As I sit here reminiscing about Christmases past over a cup of coffee with the tree lights and wreath providing illumination, I surprise myself feeling bittersweet pangs. Amidst the happy memories of family gatherings and joyful children, I find myself also missing the people that are gone and the times that sped so quickly by. So many Christmas days vie for remembrance, first with my brothers and parents as children, then as adults, then those hectic wonderful years with my own small children, and now they too are adults. My memories turn into a kaleidoscope of people and places, the years telescoping into a panoply of ever-shifting remembrances. Every year has its joys, and its sorrows, but perhaps the importance of Christmas is that it focuses heavily on the joys.
 

I twist the kaleidoscope, and memories of the parents' house in Hollandia come into view, their dreams on the lake perhaps not coming to fruition as they'd planned, but in retrospect I see that all the important aspects actually did, and somehow I think Mom knew this aspect better than Dad, and so she was always the happier one. The Christmas tree in the corner of the living room where it always was, probably placed there to put it as far as possible from the sparks of the fire place, and adorned with the re-used tinsel and aging garland (I guess it was new back then, once upon a time) and burning-hot incandescent bulbs. My brothers and I, as small children with our trucks and toys, then with another twist as growing boys with bikes and balls, but always the four of us and just the four of us with never an added guest. And once or twice a rare Christmas with snow on the ground, always hoped-for but rarely experienced.
 

Twist again and it's our huge tree in the Dover house, with too many presents as we went overboard in our happy celebration of our lives. Those were truly joyous years, with too little sleep and too much rushing around to get that must-have item, or to balance out the number and value of presents so no child was favored. That tree was a beast, with too many hours hanging thousands of lights, and now it lives in the attic as a daunting recollection. By then the brothers all had separate lives of their own, so that aspect rotated away and my own family took center stage, and happily so. And again there were one or two white Christmases, including one where I helped the older kids make a modest snowman.
 

Another turn and it's the harder years, where we strove mightily to maintain the joy at Christmas and freeze every happy minute, as I knew the years with Jason and aging parents were numbered and I perhaps tried too hard to capture the moments. But the happy memories abounded, with Christmas dinner at Henry's instead of the folks' house as they no longer had the energy to host the growing group, so it was a split affair with presents at our house then the broader family get-together. Though sometimes brothers were missing, it was always a large boisterous group with cousins and in-laws in varying proportions, and there was that one Christmas when everybody was in one place, all the brothers and spouses, and we fortunately took a family picture with all of us, not realizing it would be the last.
 

Another twist and our kids are teens and tweens, and we're juggling real cars as well as toy ones, and kids are running off for other engagements with friends and creating their own holiday memories. We deliberately decided not to be demanding parents that required all kids to make our holidays a priority, so eventually there were trips with friends, then older kids moving away. We lost Jason, and Mom and Dad, and suddenly Christmas was as much about remembrance as making new memories.
 

Slide another year or two and the number of presents under the tree were much fewer, as young adults desired fewer but more expensive items, and there were literally fewer people to with whom to celebrate. Now we're to the adult-children years, but before grand-children, and with COVID travel is less advised. Divorces split away some in-laws, and left new gaps and surely bittersweet memories in their wake, while new marriages bring a new dynamic as others come in. Most of the kids have moved away, alone or as couples, and I am satisfied by such as it is as it should be with kids finding their own lives. I am content that all the kids were home for Thanksgiving, and I've been fortunate enough to see all my brothers individually. It's certainly been quite a while since all four have been here at once, and the brief trip to Pennsylvania reminds me how much I enjoy having more of us together.
 

So here on a quiet Christmas morning, with no snow (at 70F+ it's not going to snow today!), looking at our small, simple tree and eternal wreath, I let the kaleidoscope spin, and I am flooded by a range of emotions -- both mine and those of others in the frame -- as the years, people, and emotions overlap in flowing juxtapositions. Surely some are not only Christmas moments, but these holiday frames stand out as bright, focused instances. I am glad I deliberately froze some such moments as they came along, knowing that years go fleeting by, and that the emotions attached to others help tag them into memories as well..
 

Surprisingly, I find the kaleidoscope also hints at future Christmases, some at our house and in other places, with other trees, and other fireplaces, and with grandchildren and others I do not yet know gleefully tearing wrapping paper. I sit at the edge and watch contentedly, for they do not know as I do that while the joy of Christmas sometimes involves presents, the happiness comes from togetherness and experiencing the joy of others that we love. There are also shadows there, hinting at future losses, and so I know I must live the joys in the moment, capturing them and adding them to the kaleidoscope for future years.

Focus on the Car-Lite Positives

For those of us who have traveled a bit, and seen the car-free or car-lite centers of European towns with quaint streets from Medieval times, strolled the quiet walkable/bikeable streets of the Netherlands after riding their excelling trains, been in India during the age of cycling and mopeds and then again after in their age of cars, or wandered through the rebuilt cities of China with their wide multi-mode streets along with the ancestral parks with wandering paths, the impact of cars on our lives is perhaps a bit more noticeable than for our countrymen at large.

I've recently been fond of the technocratic side of cycling and autos, delving into the impact of cars on city pollution, noise, emissions, and hazards, and the relative math of transportation modes, and the uncertain Faustian bargain of EV's and self-driving cars.  I've advocated for cycling for years, from the days of recreation pathways (rails to trails and river-edge paths, etc.) to the seize-the-lane notion of shared roadways (and the now-infamous sharrows), to more recent complete streets with marked bike lanes, to current best-practices with bollards, bike-boxes, green-wave lights, and dedicated side-paths.

I've done the math on land area dedicated to cars, the drivers of sprawl, and the impacts on happiness and health.  I've seen the analysis of ponzi-economics of suburbia, and that of transit- and housing-deprived cities.  For me, the options are clear and the choices are obvious.

What I must now admit is that painting a data-driven picture of what is wrong with car-centric cities and lifestyles in the hopes of winning converts is a losing approach.  For every deeply-considered numbers-thinking convert, there are a dozen more who immediately get their hackles up and react defensively to protect their cars.  Since the early days of cars, some drivers have seen cyclists and pedestrians as enemies, and it's certainly no better now.  We're now maybe 4 generations into the great experiment of post-war highways and car-centric lives, and most drivers today outside of the largest cities have never known transit, and fewer still effective mass transit.

What fraction of ambitious young Americans have been in a car-lite city? What fraction of busy family-age parents have spent much time living on quiet, car-free street?  How many have lusted over a sharp, expensive automobile, or simply dreamed of the day they turned 16 and could drive their first jalopy?


So, now that I've decided that deep understanding isn't enough, what is a marketing approach that will work?  In my business experience, real-world examples that can be experienced first-hand work better than presentations and brochures.  Maybe what we need instead of books and articles stating all the facts, is some feel-better examples here in the US of areas that "work" without cars?

For me, reading "Curbing Traffic" by the Bruntlett's was the turning point for my thinking.   Sure, they had lots of good examples and discussion on infrastructure along with lifestyle color, but this latest book focuses a lot more on the lived experience of a car-lite existence than their earlier book "Building the Cycling City", or another great book "Copenhagenize" by Collville-Andersen, or Speck's excellent "Walkable City".  Rather than complaining about the ills of our modern suburbs (which are indeed many!), let's present a lifestyle as it could be - healthier, friendlier, safer, more independent, more equitable, cheaper, and along the way greener, more sustainable, and less CO2 generating.

Let's not "war on cars" in the mainstream, however richly deserved that may be; instead, let's just ignore cars and quietly relegate them to longer odd-ball trips or those with painful commutes, and paint a more wholesome picture of a life where walking and cycling works for most trips and we simply don't need a car for many errands.  Let's meet struggling young families where they are (and who among us hasn't struggled in some way during those early child years?) and show a better way to live, with a richer world of local interactions for young children and more autonomy for teens.  As we accomplish this, let's help those already without cars -- the elderly, infirm, and financially disadvantaged -- have a good life.

So, we need examples of livable neighborhoods.  Where are such places in the US?

Cars: How did our worst idea become our only idea?

 

I saw a question on social media about "how did our worst idea become our only idea?" in response to car traffic.

Surprisingly, I know the answer to this, both practically and theoretically.  Get comfortable and see what you think of my traffic manifesto:



Network theory says that the value of a network grows as a function of the nodes connected, generally on the order of a square law (the factor is argued, but not the general statement).  This is known as Metcalfe's Law.  We already collectively knew this for millennia, which is why paths, streets, and roads have grown to connect everything related to humans, and you hear stuff like "all roads lead to Rome" and such.  The dawn of the telephone age formalized Metcalfe's Law, and the Internet has provided another data point, and recently Amazon and AirBnB have yet again.  With any "iteration with preferential selection" situation, you end up with winner-take-all patterns, as more users add push for destinations to connect, and more destinations push more users to connect, and more connections expand the network.

As for human transport, not much differed if all were on foot, or some were on horses (note that everything that people complained about cars was once said about horses and carriages, which too often ran over poor kids with little repercussion).   A carriage could go too fast for existing traffic, but get to more places conveniently, so all would naturally gravitate to horses if they could.  But horses are expensive, so a secondary feedback loop prevented a horse-traffic takeover.

In the 1800's, railroads arose for the same reason.  A steam train is fast compared to a horse, and much cheaper for an individual trip/load, so rail took over for longer-distant connectivity, and with later electrification streetcars came along also for local travel.  Trains and trams have complex and expensive infrastructure, so it's hard to have rail as a door-to-door solution, hence ToD and DoT became valid concepts.  Rail did not really compete with streets, other than to create dangerous at-grade crossing - the networks connect and overlap, but do not directly compete.  Rail did compete with roads between towns, but generally rural right-of-way land was pretty cheap so dual networks evolved. 

After 1875, a bunch of interesting things happened.  Electrification brought along sewing machines and washing machines for the home, and completely changed the central power model of factories.  That's and interesting story....but also at the same time came the bicycle.  Most people today do not know that bicycles quietly took over the world after the Penny Farthing (and its coining of the term "took a header") gave way to the "safety bicycle".  Cycling manufacture around the world exploded, and paved streets, which were already common in big European cities, grew in expanse.   Bikes were cheap compared to a horse, and cleaner, and became popular with men going to newly distributed craft jobs driven by machine electrification and with women with new spare time due to sewing/washing machines. 

This is where we see "iteration with preferential selection" playing its game -- for every trip, a person could decide what conveyance to use, and for each purchase, whether to buy a horse, a bike, a new pair of shoes, etc.  Most people did not buy railcars (though some did), and many could not buy horses (though some did, and complained a LOT about cyclists taking "their" streets), but they could buy a bike.  With each new bike, another person could easily reach more distant destinations, and with each new cyclist there was value to have housing and shops a little further out.  At the same time, electric trams/streetcars were invented, and these too used street space in cities, but were relatively few in number so the time-space occupancy was small and speeds were limited to manage risk acceptably.  Theory would say that soon enough, cycling and streetcars should take over, and cities would also expand.  And they did.

So, in essence, bicycles and streetcars could leverage the same network to better advantage than previous transmission protocols, and yet coexist, so the network adapted to match.   Nobody notices the history of cycling now, as bicycles are small and fit pretty well into a world with lots of people, some horses, and a few carriages.  I'm sure they had parking issues, but this doesn't much show up in the "hard assets" we see as streets have evolved.  Streetcars are still remembered, given the "streetcar suburb" housing layouts and continued existence of derelict rails peeking through here and there.

Then along came cars.  Cars offered the same value that horses enjoyed, and the same issues, only more-so.  When there were only a few, they were owned by the wealthy, and the same issues were handled the same way: "don't get in my way!".  Since as we've seen the network connectivity value is driven by network size, and that is determined by speed (given a static density), going fast was desirable.  Early on, we had a few fast cars trying to go more places, and cars competed with bicycles and horses and then streetcars, but the secondary limit of price was still in place.  Note that cars also competed with rail, where connectivity existed between towns.

As car prices dropped, the iteration and preferential selection mechanism did its thing, and as we know that for any trip one can choose whether to walk, bike, ride, or drive, and often the car was (and is) the fastest solution from A to B, so it gets picked.

But over time, as car volumes increased, the network itself had to grow, and the combination of demand for road space and parking plus the growing hazard to other traffic types first impact street usage, and then the roads, and finally the city layouts themselves.  As with bikes and streetcars, higher speeds enable cities to grow at the edges, but the desire for connectivity is insatiable (Metcalfe's Law is even bigger than linear, remember!), so speeds must tend to go up as well.  Unfortunately, the demand for speed and space presses back on the structure of cities, which responded by becoming less dense (since costs are lower at the edges) and more car-centric, as increasingly each trip choice would favor the car.  Where streetcar suburbs tend to be dense and close-in, car suburbs tend to be sprawling and thus further out.

What limits car traffic?  We have seen that this is actually known, with the Downs-Thomson Paradox -- it grows until another mode of connectivity is faster.  This is precisely what the "iteration with preferential selection" networking model would say -- if another mode works better, it'll get picked.  But now we know that cars, bikes, and peds (and rail) do not really share the same network without friction.  Cars took over streets completely, so to use another mode a new network has to be built, and this requires explicit decisions that are NOT part of the daily iterative selection and preference process. 

There is absolutely nothing new about this, as transit planners have been saying for a long time that headway frequency is critical, and yet the destination coverage is critical too.  The square law of network theory says that transit will be pulled toward covering more destinations, but the preferential selection per trip says that transit will only be used when it is the fastest choice. 

This also means that on-street buses, as in Tulsa, will never successfully compete with cars.  It is theoretically and practically impossible....the only point favoring on-street buses is cost, and even that requires public support.  The only people who will use such buses are people who do not have cars, and that makes sense as a choice for them ONLY IF the cost is lower, AND their destinations are reachable by bus, AND the time is not too long.  For others, a bus might make sense if a lethargic bus connection is a small inconvenience on the end of a faster trip using another mode.  So, if you have a fast train into town and then a slow bus, you might still see the combination as better than a slow drive with parking hassles and expense. 

So, what does this say:

• Alternative choices about transit architecture can NEVER be made by auto interests, including drivers themselves.  Once you have paid for a car, the incremental cost per trip is small, and it will self-justify the auto -- it's a stable and durable state.
• On-street options, like ordinary buses, will not be acceptable trip options UNLESS they are prioritized over other traffic.  Buses are impacted by the same delays as cars, yet with fewer destinations available and more stops to slow them.  BRT will only attract drivers if given dedicated lanes and priority.
• Parking is part of the problem in that convenient, free parking favors cars in multiple ways.  If parking costs more, autos are less affordable as a per-trip option.  If parking is hard to find, it adds to the effective trip time, and impacts the trip choice trade-off IF other options are available.
• If all traffic is by car and bus, car traffic will tend to increase until the travel cost (time and money) exceeds the trip value, unless there is a point where another mode makes sense.  In some cities without transit this happens when walking is faster than traffic-jammed streets, yet even for this situation cars hold an edge by making walking physically hazardous, noxious, and long due to sprawl.  Without options besides cars, the network will favor cars and nothing else, not even human life in general.  You'll be able to go anywhere in theory, but most trips won't be worth the time and hassle, and crashes and pollution will continue to be major issues for humanity.  
  
• Thus, separate network infrastructure is critical to enable reasonable choices along with decent living.  With convenient options for transit and cycling, or even walking, cities can be denser and more connected, AND car travel will work better too.  Oddball trip connections can still be made by car, while most routine trips can more easily and effectively be done using another mode.  Metcalfe's Law and the Downs-Thomson Paradox will work together to expand useful connectivity, while our explicit choices about transit network investments will reign in the most undesirable aspects of each option.
  
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